At a time of rising tensions, with diplomatic efforts to de-escalate strained relations failing and increasing militarization of Ukraine’s neighboring countries between Russia, the United States, the United Kingdom, and other European countries growing, the best question to ask is will Russia invade Ukraine?
Words from the West suggest that the Russian military may invade Ukraine at any time, and this worry is fueled by the escalating military build-ups near the Russian border. Over 130,000 troops are currently stationed at readiness or exercising, together with bombers and ships in the Black Sea, on Ukraine’s borders. NATO and its allies have expressed the possibility of an invasion at any time.
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg warned of “a real risk of a new armed conflict in Europe” earlier this week from an airbase in Romania, where the US has temporarily deployed troops and promised to strengthen the alliance’s eastern flank.
Also, UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace has stated that Russia has the ability to attack Ukraine “at any time.” Except for the European Commission, the United States has instructed Americans in Ukraine to depart within the next 48 hours.
The contradictions arising from the possibility of the Russian invasion remain a source of contention even within the West itself. France, for example, has chosen a different course in this regard. Russia has expressed doubts about the US and NATO positions on its claims: making a media manipulations-cutting directive in an attempt to stir unrest between Russia and Ukraine.
The Russian foreign ministry claimed that Western countries were circulating false information with the help of the media, implying that Moscow was contemplating an invasion of Ukraine.
This implies that Russia has no intention of invading or fighting Ukraine. Over time, the Russian side has placed a greater focus on negotiation than on going to war. In essence, Russia is more interested in deterrence with the goal of preventing Ukraine from joining NATO and reaching a new deal with the organization and America over not just Ukraine but all of its neighbors. In these circumstances, Russia is concerned about Western influence in its neighboring countries, an occurrence that has prompted Russia to rise up against the threat from its neighbors.
With weeks of Russian military buildups along the Ukrainian border and multiple threats from NATO, the United Kingdom, and the United States, if the Kremlin had intended to invade, it would have done so. Throughout these lengthy weeks, media misinformation has forced the true need of Russia to the fore. Russia does not seek a NATO-Ukraine alliance.
Although instinctual speculation suggests that if NATO fails to reach a diplomatic agreement with Russia, it will be forced to create a situation that will likely result in a minor crisis in the absence of a full-fledged war unless it is called for!
