Zelensky wants to use Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant to end the war but the consequences are beyond imagination.
When Putin announced that Russia was starting its special military operation in Ukraine, the level of nuclear weapons usage was raised as Putin ordered nuclear strategic forces on alert but as the prospect of NATO not joining the fight become evident, the world breathed relief and hoped that nuclear was averted.
Increased desperation in Keiv especially by Zelensky under the advisors from the UK, Zelensky may do the imaginable and order the attack on a nuclear reactor at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in order to put a stop to the advance of Russian troops.
Let’s take a look at the position of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and its capacity and the damage it can cause if the reactor is attacked.
Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is the largest nuclear power plant in Ukraine and Europe and is the 10th largest in the world. The nuclear power plant was built by the Soviet Union near the city of Enerhoder, on the Southern shore of river Nakhodka Reservoir on the Dnieper river.
The planet has 6 nuclear reactors, 2 cooling power, a thermal power capacity of 6×3000 MWth and a power generation capacity of 5700 MW, units operation of 6×950 MW with an annual net output of 29299GWh as of 2016.
Incidents at Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant so far
In May 2014, 40 armed members claiming to be representatives of the right sector allegedly tried to gain access to the power plant area. The men were stopped by the Ukrainian police before entering Enerhodar.
The Zaporizhzhia power plant is located around 200 km away from the war in the Donbas combat zone, where fighting became very severe in 2014. On 31 August 2014, green peace member, Tobias Münchmeyer, expressed concerns the plant could be hit by heavy artillery from the fighting.
On December 3, Prime minister Arseny Yatseniuk the occurrence of an incident several days before at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. The cause of the incident was reported as a short circuit in the power outlet system and was not linked to the site’s production.
One of the six reactors of the plant was shut down twice in December 2014. This and the lack of coal for Ukraine’s coal-fired plants led to rolling blackouts throughout the country from early until late December 2014.
During approximately two hours of heavy combat, a fire broke out in a training facility outside the main complex, which was extinguished by 6:20 am, though other sections surrounding the plant sustained damage. The fire did not impact reactor safety or any essential equipment. The plant lost 1.3 GW of capacity.
On 19 July 2022, three Ukrainian suicide drones attacked Russian equipment and tents at the site. Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense said that three Russian soldiers were killed and twelve injured. The administration was reported as saying that at least eleven employees were injured. An official said the reactors were not damaged and it was unlikely they were the target.
On 3 August 2022, Rafal Grossi, head of the IAEA, expressed grave concerns about the physical integrity of the plant, whether all necessary repairs and maintenance were being done, and the security of nuclear material.
A mission to inspect the plant was being planned by the IAEA, waiting on approval by the Ukrainian and Russian sides, as well as United Nations authorisation. Ukraine’s state nuclear company Rosenergoatom opposed an IAEA visit because “any visit would legitimise Russia’s presence there”.
Official Yevhen Balytskyi invited IAEA to visit to show how the Russians were guarding the facility while Ukrainians were attacking it. By 6 August 2022 IAEA reported one of three reactors remaining in operation disconnected from the grid and triggered its emergency protection system as a result of shelling the previous day.
On 8 August 2022, the damage was reported at the plant. Ukrainian authorities said that Russian shelling had damaged three radiation sensors and left a worker hospitalised where Ukrainian President Zelensky accused Russia of waging “nuclear terror”.
Local Russian-backed authorities said that Ukrainian forces had hit the site with a multiple rocket launchers, damaging administrative buildings and an area near a nuclear storage facility.
Accusations and concerns
UN secretary general Guterres said “any attack on a nuclear plant is a suicidal thing”, calling for IAEA inspectors to be given access but Ukraine’s Rosenergoatom called for a demilitarised zone around the plant with international peacekeepers deployed which was meant to kick the Russians out.
On 11 August the complex was shelled several times, including near where radioactive materials were stored Ukraine said that Russia did the shelling, while Russian officials said that Ukraine did it.
On 14 August Zelenskyy accused Russia of stationing troops at the plant to fire at the cities of Nikopol and Marharnets
In the second half of August 2022, a video emerged that appeared to show Russian military trucks parked in the building that housed the power plant’s turbines where western Countries especially the UK and the US accused Russia of turning the nuclear power plant into a military barrack, accusations denied by Russia.
What happens if Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is bombed?
Many experts have come up to talk about what happens if the plant is attacked. According to experts, if shelling hit the nuclear waste stored at the Zaporizhzhia plant, it could cause a major leak. “If missile strikes hit the nuclear waste storage, then [nuclear] pollution could spread through air and water,” said Ozharovsky.
The area around the plant has silos of nuclear waste, and the surrounding soil could release radiation if disturbed, de Bretton-Gordon said. “If this did catch fire or blow up, the contamination is unlikely to be isolated to Ukraine,” he said. “It is likely to impact the whole of Europe — and Russia as well.
A meltdown or explosion at a nuclear facility could cause a large amount of radioactive material to be released into the environment. People at the nuclear facility would probably be contaminated and possibly injured if there were an explosion.
The most worrying situation is if a nuclear power plant accident occurs, heat and pressure build-up, and the steam, along with the radioactive materials, may be released causing contamination and death of thousands of people within 50 miles radius.
Ending the war
All the above incidents can immediately put the war to a standstill and can create a buffer zone between Russia-held territories and western Ukraine due to unprecedented pollution and international condemnation after tens of thousands of people died.
It said that if Ukraine soldiers are defeated in eastern and southern parts of the country, central and western Ukraine will likely remain undefended giving Russia an easy takeover and fall of the whole country which spells the end of president Zelensky.
For Zelensky, if Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant can save his administration and stop the war then it may be worth the shot with the hope of Russia giving up the plant under international pressure but this is a dangerous game being played by Zelensky and his advisors.