China’s oil demand concerns, coupled with the prospect of higher supply from major producers, are anticipated to maintain oil prices relatively stable in the latter half of 2024, as indicated by a recent Reuters poll.
Surveying 44 analysts and economists over the past two weeks, the poll forecasts an average price of $83.93 per barrel for Brent crude in 2024, slightly below the previous month’s consensus of $84.01 per barrel.
The forecast for average U.S. crude in 2024 is $79.72, which slightly exceeds May’s poll result of $79.56. Brent crude futures have averaged $83.40 so far in 2024, with occasional spikes up to $92.18 driven by supply risks from Middle Eastern conflicts.
According to Julius Baer analyst Norbert Rücker, “Oil prices seem stuck in a sideways trend amid stable supply and demand dynamics, and storage levels are well within seasonal norms
China’s influence on world oil prices is significant due to its status as one of the largest consumers of crude oil globally. Changes in China’s economic growth, industrial output, and energy policies can have substantial effects on global oil demand and, consequently, prices.