After a fiery debate between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris on September 10, betting platform Polymarket showed the two candidates in a close race. From 6 a.m. to 12 p.m. EDT on Wednesday, both had a 49% chance of winning, but by 2:30 p.m., Trump had inched ahead with a 50% chance.
The debate, aired on NBC, sparked various public opinion polls. A CNN flash poll found that 63% of viewers believed Harris performed better, while a Newsweek survey showed her leading Trump nearly two to one among 8,725 voters. However, a Fox poll conducted by Livenow indicated 68% of respondents favored Trump, with 31% supporting Harris.
Polymarket initially showed the candidates tied, a change from Trump’s earlier lead that week. As of Wednesday afternoon, Trump maintained a slight advantage. Additionally, Harris led in popular vote projections, while Trump was ahead in four of six key battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Nevada. Harris held Michigan and Wisconsin.
The debate itself saw Harris frequently putting Trump on the defensive, using personal critiques that some analysts said unsettled the former president. While Harris’s favorability rose post-debate, Trump’s numbers remained steady.
Polling indicated that 82% of viewers were unmoved in their candidate choice, though 14% said the debate made them reconsider. Harris’s favorability improved significantly with independent voters, though Trump retained a 20-point lead on economic issues.
Despite Trump gaining a slight edge on Polymarket, Harris’s strong performance in the polls suggests a tight race ahead. Both candidates are expected to focus on swing states and key voter groups as their campaigns progress.
