Jeff Park, Head of Alpha Strategies at Bitwise, has made a bold prediction that Bitcoin (BTC) could soar to approximately $92,000 if Donald Trump wins the upcoming U.S. presidential election. He shared this forecast in a recent post on X, as he emphasized on the potential impact of political outcomes on cryptocurrency markets.
Park based his projection on an analysis that charts Bitcoin’s price movements against Trump’s electoral odds, as indicated by data from the decentralized betting platform Polymarket. He utilized “merger arb-style probability math” to arrive at his conclusion, suggesting that historical correlations between political events and Bitcoin price fluctuations could signal significant gains following a Trump victory.
“By applying merger arb-style probability math, I project a Trump victory could push BTC to ~$92,000. Take that as you will.”
The response to Park’s prediction has been mixed. Some users expressed enthusiasm, with one commenting, “+30%. I’m in for it.” However, others sought clarification on the calculations behind his forecast, calling for detailed analysis on his prediction.
Park’s bullish prediction is echoed by other Bitwise executives, including Matt Hougan, the company’s Chief Investment Officer, who previously stated that Bitcoin serves as an “ultimate insurance policy” against economic mismanagement.
Analysts from financial institutions such as Bernstein and Standard Chartered also believe that a Trump victory could lead to higher BTC prices supporting Park claim about the price increment while in contrast, predict lower prices if Vice President Kamala Harris assumes office.
While many are optimistic about Bitcoin’s price potential if Trump wins, not everyone shares this view. Billionaire investor Mark Cuban, who supports Harris, warned that any price increase following a Trump victory might be short-lived.
He cautioned that Trump’s proposed economic policies could introduce inflationary pressures that might ultimately hinder Bitcoin’s long-term performance. “If Trump wins, the crypto markets will likely pump for a few weeks before descending again,” he remarked.
As of now, Bitcoin is trading around $67,000, showingvolatility in the market as investors speculate on the upcoming election. Polling data indicates a close race between Trump and Harris, with recent surveys showing Harris leading by a narrow margin of 1.8% nationally.
The anticipation surrounding the election is contributing to fluctuations in Bitcoin’s price and overall market dynamics with analysts suggesting that, a favorable regulatory conditions under a Trump administration could enhance investor confidence and drive demand for cryptocurrencies.