In the wake of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaring the Mpox outbreak, commonly known as monkeypox, a public health emergency of international concern, interest in the situation has surged on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. Users on the platform are now placing significant bets on whether Mpox will be classified as a pandemic in 2024.
Currently, Polymarket bettors are assigning a 20% probability that Mpox will be declared a pandemic. The platform has seen various wagers related to the outbreak, including a notable bet on whether a confirmed case of Mpox will be reported in the United States by the end of August, which has attracted $153,019 in wagers with the odds set at 50%. Another bet, totaling $46,600, estimates a 77% chance that Mpox will be detected in the U.S. by September. Additionally, there is a wager speculating on whether there will be 100 confirmed cases in the U.S. before October, with current odds of 28%. Predictions also indicate a 72% chance that more than 10 U.S. citizens will contract monkeypox.
The media has intensified its coverage of the Mpox outbreak, with a recent editorial by the Associated Press questioning the potential for a pandemic declaration. While scientists have assessed the risk to the general population in countries without ongoing Mpox outbreaks as low, the situation remains fluid. The editorial highlighted that Mpox spreads more slowly than the coronavirus, yet the ongoing coverage has fueled public speculation and concern.
As the outbreak continues to unfold, global health authorities, including the WHO and the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC), are closely monitoring the situation. The Africa CDC has already declared the Mpox outbreak a Public Health Emergency of Continental Security, mobilizing resources across affected countries. In 2024 alone, more than 15,600 cases have been reported globally, with significant outbreaks in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and several other African nations.
The rising interest in betting on the Mpox outbreak reflects broader public concerns about potential health crises, especially in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. As health authorities work to manage the situation, the implications of Mpox on public health policy and community safety will continue to be closely observed.
