Prime Minister Justin Trudeau may face a pivotal non-confidence vote as early as next week, potentially leading to a federal election in Canada much sooner than the scheduled date of October 2025. Reports indicate that Trudeau is open to allowing the Official Opposition Conservatives to introduce this motion, which could be debated on Tuesday, September 24, with a vote expected the following day.
The possibility of this non-confidence motion arises in the wake of Trudeau’s Liberal Party suffering significant setbacks in recent byelections. On September 16, 2024, Liberal candidates lost two key contests: one in the historically safe Montreal riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun to Louis-Philippe Sauvé of the Bloc Québécois, and another in Winnipeg’s Elmwood—Transcona, where NDP candidate Leila Dance triumphed.
These defeats have intensified scrutiny on Trudeau’s leadership and raised questions about the stability of his minority government.
Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has been vocal about his intention to introduce a non-confidence motion following the resumption of Parliament. His party currently holds a substantial lead in public opinion polls, with recent surveys indicating that they are approximately 20 percentage points ahead of the Liberals. Poilievre has characterized Trudeau’s government as ineffective, stating, “Taxes up. Costs up. Crime’s up. Time’s up.”
The dynamics in Parliament have shifted significantly since the New Democratic Party (NDP) ended its supply-and-confidence agreement with the Liberals last week. This agreement had previously ensured that the minority government could remain in power until next fall. The NDP has indicated it will now evaluate its support on a case-by-case basis, complicating Trudeau’s position.
Bloc Québécois leader Yves-François Blanchet has expressed reluctance to support a Conservative-led motion that would replace Trudeau with Poilievre, stating, “I’m not in the business of replacing Justin Trudeau with Pierre Poilievre.” This sentiment raises questions about whether the NDP or Bloc will align with the Conservatives during the upcoming vote.
Despite these challenges, Trudeau has maintained that he will not resign and remains committed to leading his party. He stated, “I’m not going anywhere,” emphasizing his determination to continue governing despite the recent electoral setbacks.
The political landscape for the Liberals is precarious; according to an Ipsos poll conducted for Global News, only 33% of Canadians approve of Trudeau’s government, down from previous months. If an election were held today, projections suggest that the Conservatives could secure a supermajority in Parliament, while the Liberals might find themselves relegated to third or even fourth place.
Trudeau’s recent behavior has also drawn criticism within his party. Reports surfaced regarding his conduct at a recent Liberal caucus retreat where he reportedly compared himself to Rocky Balboa while playing music from the film. This has been interpreted by some as an indication of a disconnect with the realities facing his government.
