The 2024 hurricane season was initially forecast to be “above-normal,” with predictions of up to 25 named storms, 13 hurricanes, and seven major hurricanes (Category 3 or stronger). However, as of now, the season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, has seen only five named storms: Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, and Ernesto. Among these, three reached hurricane status, with Beryl classified as a major Category 5 storm.
Meteorologists are puzzled by the discrepancy between these forecasts and the current calm in storm activity. AccuWeather meteorologist Alex DaSilva pointed to several complicating factors, including dust from the Sahara Desert, cold waters off the western coast of Africa, and a delayed La Niña phenomenon.
DaSilva explained, “Extremely warm waters across much of the Atlantic basin are ideal for tropical development and rapid intensification, but the influx of dry air, dust, wind shear, and cold waters off the coast of Africa have hindered most tropical waves from evolving into storms or hurricanes.”
Two critical factors typically influence hurricane activity: ocean temperatures in the Atlantic and the presence of La Niña or El Niño. Currently, ocean temperatures remain warm, which is conducive for storm formation. Climate Prediction Center meteorologist Dan Harnos noted, “There’s plenty of room for the tide to turn with all the warm water out there. Things could change quickly.”
La Niña, which generally enhances Atlantic storm activity by reducing high-altitude winds that can disrupt hurricanes, is expected to form later than initially anticipated. It is now projected to develop between September and October, which could lead to a surge in storm activity as the season progresses.
If La Niña does materialize, it could fuel a strong and potentially dangerous end to the 2024 hurricane season, despite the current quiet. Meteorologists remain vigilant, as the season still has significant time left for conditions to shift dramatically.
